Objectives The study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of cropland in Binzhou Shell Ridge Island and Wetland National Nature Reserve, providing a reference for the governance and conservation of similar nature reserves.

Methods Based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD), the transfer flow of cropland within the reserve from 1985 to 2022 was analyzed using a land use transition matrix combined with Sankey diagrams. Integrating multidimensional factors including natural, social, economic, and policy dimensions, the driving factors underlying the dynamic changes of the cropland were explored utilizing the optimal parameter-based geographical detector model.

Results 1) From 1985 to 2022, the area of cropland within the reserve has continuously decreased, with its proportion dropping from 14.09% to 2.79%. The most significant decrease in cropland within the experimental area (31.78%) was followed by the buffer zone (2.08%) and the core area (0.35%). 2) During 1985 to 2022, the reduced cropland was mainly converted to water areas. Water areas expanded continuously, whereas the amount of cropland converted into cropland remained minimal. 3) From 2000 to 2015, the main driving factors affecting the change of cropland were DIVISION, population, and GDP. By 2020, DIVISION remained the primary driving factor, the driving effects of GDP and nighttime light on cropland change were pronounced, and the influence of policy factors became prominent. Meanwhile, the interactive effects between natural factors and the fragmentation of cropland has significantly increased.

Conclusions Cropland within the Binzhou Shell Island and Wetland National Nature Reserve has been effectively controlled, and wetland protection efforts have yielded notable success. Population represented a key factor in enhancing the effectiveness of the reserve, and under the dominance of economic drivers, policy influence has been steadily strengthening. Local authorities should enhance supervision of the reserve, strictly control the population within its boundaries, and promote ecological awareness.